Barron's 2011 Roundtable, Part Three -- Think Contrarian

Source: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204331604576104252848553210.html#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

By LAUREN R. RUBLIN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Meryl Witmer, Marc Faber, Mario Gabelli and Oscar Schafer share their investment picks for 2011 in the final

If you're looking for compelling investment ideas and insights into how to unearth them, you've come to the right publication. That is especially so in any week when stock pickers extraordinaire Meryl Witmer, Mario Gabelli and Oscar Schafer grace these pages together. Add Marc Faber, whose 30,000-foot view of the markets encompasses both hemispheres and all asset classes, and you've got yourself the handiest guide we know to making money in 2011.

On Jan. 10, the editors of Barron's were fortunate to get all four -- and the other six members of the Roundtable -- in the same room at the same time, to explore the prospects for the global economy, financial markets and a wide array of investments in the year ahead. This week's Roundtable issue, the last of three, features the picks of this formidable foursome, and their stock-picking strategies.

Barron's Roundtable

Part 1: Attention Stockpickers

Part 2: All Over the Map

Part 3: Think Contrarian

Meryl, a general partner at New York's Eagle Capital Partners, says it's a lot harder to find cheap stocks now that the market has rallied. That is why she and her team are prowling for companies recently released from bankruptcy protection -- a process that cleanses their balance sheets but wrecks their reputations. The more unloved they are, the more Meryl loves them -- and the opportunities they offer.

Mario, the big boss at Gamco Investors in Rye, N.Y., has a keen interest in break-ups, make-ups, spinoffs and split-ups -- the Page Six of corporate life. That's because deals are "one way for values to surface." Deal stocks likeFortune Brands and Sara Lee figure prominently among his picks for 2011, along with a novel play on shale gas and another on gold.

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Brad Trent for Barron's

From left, Marc Faber, Oscar Schafer, Meryl Witmer and Mario Gabelli share the stock-picking spotlight in this week's issue.

For Oscar, the value hound who runs New York's O.S.S. Capital, it's the catalyst that counts. What circumstance, or constellation of events, could turn an otherwise ordinary business into a growth machine? He homes in this year on companies returning to public hands after leveraged buyouts. Shares outstanding are limited, tax rates are low and management is cost-conscious -- an optimal set-up for outsized investment returns. Hertz is one such returnee, and his masterful analysis is worth reading twice.

As for Marc, a globe-trotting financial advisor, he's prone to big pronouncements. Nothing to get alarmed about -- just that all paper currencies are doomed and World War III has begun. When the shock wears off, however, you might be riveted by his thoughts on how to profit from great global shifts, as well as temporary dislocations in equity, currency and commodity prices. Think energy, gold and, yes, Japan.

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Barron's 2011 Roundtable, Part Two -- All Over the Map

Source:http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204853904576090250370348320.html?mod=BOL_twm_fs#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

By LAUREN R. RUBLIN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
In the second installment of the Roundtable, our pros' picks range widely over commodities, previous metals, financial stocks and big-cap tech. Two better-than-bonds plays.

If you read the first installment of this year's Barron'sRoundtable, you already know the sky is falling–but very, very slowly. It could take another year, or two or four, before the dollar tumbles, the euro crumbles and the price of gold, that great hedge against disaster, makes its way to the stratosphere.

Meanwhile, back here on earth, shrewd investors can find bargains aplenty among stocks, bonds, funds and even futures, as well as other neat ways to profit in a high-anxiety, ultra-low-interest-rate world. We rounded up 10 such investors two weeks ago, and sat them down at the Harvard Club of New York for a long day of intense conversation on where in the world to invest in 2011.

Last week we shared the big-picture views of these market savants. This week's installment -- the second of three -- typically features the investment picks and pans of several panelists. But those big, important issues, from economics to policy to politics, kept sneaking back into the conversation all day long, providing the basis for broad, thematic investment recommendations.

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Brad Trent for Barron's

Thus, Felix Zulauf, head of Zulauf Asset Management in Zug, Switzerland, one of the savviest observers anywhere of the global investment scene, delivered a masterful disquisition on the bright past, rocky present and troubling future of the European Union, while Fred Hickey, editor of the not-to-be-missed High-Tech Strategist, published in Nashua, N.H., held forth eloquently on why gold is heading higher (in his case, to Canada) and many tech stocks, lower.

Then there was Pimco's Bill Gross, master of the universe of bonds. Few anywhere could better explain why the Federal Reserve's money-printing policies, which have promoted negative interest rates after inflation's effect, are tantamount to stealing from savers -- or how to profit from the insult.

Only Archie MacAllaster, head of New York's MacAllaster Pitfield MacKay, stuck to script, or plain old stock-picking, without a whole lot of color commentary. Then again, the dividends paid by his favorite financial concerns are colorful enough for almost any portfolio.

All four market pros are featured in this week's issue, along with the rest of the well-informed crew. It makes for lively, thought-provoking reading and, we hope, profit-provoking investments.

Barron's 2011 Roundtable, Part One -- Attention Stockpickers

Source: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204555504576075983972474462.html?mod=BOL_article_full_more#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

By LAUREN R. RUBLIN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
In the first of three installments, our panelists share their big-picture views

From the halls of Congress to the malls of California, we've been kicking the can down the road. Postponing our troubles, inflating our bubbles. Putting off, for tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow, the crushing problems that cry out to be dealt with today. Is this any way to run a country? Based on the stock market's stellar performance in the past two years, you bet it is.

The members of the Barron's Roundtable homed in on this paradox almost as soon as our annual confab got under way last Monday at the Harvard Club of New York. America's structural problems, including a gargantuan deficit, and the policies that perpetuate them, just might bring the country to ruin—but not before the stock market rallies another 5% or 10% or 20%, our panelists predict. That's because constructive cyclical or short-term forces, including a reviving industrial economy and rising corporate profits, could influence the direction of stocks for at least the next year or so.

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Brad Trent for Barron's

In the pages ahead we've distilled these 10 market mavens' big-picture views, which include a preference for equities and hard assets at a time when the Federal Reserve is printing money like mad. We call your attention, in particular, to Bill Gross' well-reasoned explanation of why negative real interest rates—the intended result of all this money creation—are a default by another name.

After the macro comes the micro, namely Scott Black's and Abby Joseph Cohen's stock picks for the new year. Founder and boss of Boston's Delphi Management, Scott brings his considerable analytical skills to bear on eight mostly small- and mid-cap companies that generate lots of cash and impressive returns on equity, but sell for underwhelming valuations.

Abby, an estimable investment strategist and head of Goldman Sachs' Global Markets Institute, favors several big-cap blue chips recommended by Goldman's analysts that will benefit from a more robust economy. Most pay nice dividends, as well, and afford exposure to growing markets overseas.

Want the names and numbers? Please read on.

Dickson G. Watts - Speculation As a Fine Art and Thoughts on Life

1. Never over trade
2. Never reverse a position and go the other way.
3. Run Quickly or not at all.
4. Reduce your position when doubtful.
5. It is better to average up than down in a position (I completely agree)
6. Do not ignore public opinion.
7. Sell in weak markets.
8. Always factor in chance in your trading.

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